South America

Peru Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 3.2% as El Niño Risks Intensify

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Courtroom-sketch editorial illustration of archival contextual U.S. one-dollar notes overlapping in a dense pile; it does not depict Peru's central bank or the September 2026 forecast announcement, rendered in warm ochre and slate-blue pastel strokes.

Peru’s central bank cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.4%, citing a stronger El Niño effect, and reduced its 2027 projection to 3.0% from 3.2%. The bank now estimates El Niño will trim 0.9 percentage points from 2026 output, with primary production expected to contract 2.3%. Agriculture is projected to fall 1.5%, fishing 30.7% and primary manufacturing 7.1%, while non-primary activity grows 4.7%. The bank also raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.2% and expects inflation to converge to 2.0% in 2027.

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