South America

Brazil Poll Shows Technical Tie as Flávio Bolsonaro Edges Lula 46%-45%

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Courtroom-sketch editorial illustration of Lula speaking into a microphone beside portraits of Flávio Bolsonaro and Ronaldo Caiado, rendered in warm ochre and slate-blue pastel strokes.

Brazil’s latest BTG/Nexus presidential poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 45% in a hypothetical runoff, a technical tie within the survey’s two-point margin of error. The previous round had Lula at 46% and Flávio at 45%. In the main first-round scenario, Lula remains at 39%, while Flávio rises from 33% to 35%; Augusto Cury records 9%, Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos 4% each, and Romeu Zema 1%. Nexus interviewed 2,002 voters by telephone across all 27 federal units from September 4 to 7, with 95% confidence.

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