Aaron David Miller
@aarondmiller2 · Blízký východ
Aaron David Miller patří mezi osobnosti, které Storyz World sleduje kvůli tématům výzkumu a odborných témat v kapitole Blízký východ.
There are few compelling reasons why this war can't persist well into 2027. Massive escalation or a deal giving Iran control of straits aren't in cards. The long dynamic of economic attrition is. https://t.co/uYKjAh4nxC
A welocme move; but still virtue signalling. Britian unwilling to sanction 2 Israeli ministers responsible for activities London is opposing. The impact will be negligible; wanted a different government in Israel. Where is Germany by the way? https://t.co/V4GIBuWw7V
.@el72champs Unclear how decisive this recent Bibi revelation will be. Polls have remained really consistent with neither Netanyahu coalition or opposition able to form a government. Could this push enough of the roughly 17% of undecided against him?https://t.co/ifRXCa1jhy
Rising oil prices reflects whatever US operational successes in restoring oil flow through Straits, Trump's war of choice evolved into an Iranian war of necessity w/Tehran more risk ready than ever determined not to let Trump out of box he put himself in. https://t.co/Txb4W48H0b
It’s head-exploding from a negotiator’s perspective Witkoff and Kushner are in Kyiv for first time. I’d say better late than never if the pro-Russian bias of Trump and his envoys wasn’t so pronounced and dangerous. https://t.co/gWkjG7R0GM
.@frnkkendl @amprog making sense. The issue going to war isn’t just can we do it; but should. I took an oath to defend constitution; and so did every career military. Are they defending it if Trump’s violating it; and silence prevails? https://t.co/v0ywfPfzZa
Trump’s small potatoes remark on Iran war sums up callousness and disregard he holds for public/military service. The war isn’t small potatoes for 18 mewomen killed; not for their families whose lives will never be same; not for thousands of Americans exposed to Iran’s missiles.
Two things are pretty clear. Iran’s willingness to launch against US Navy ship directly reflects new a risk readiness; and US response is unlikely to change Iran’s core calculations. 1 +1 =escalation. https://t.co/oATDAEhQt6
Trump’s Venezuela’s oil deal is a farce. @KFJ_FP Luis Pacheco @BakerInstitute 100 year lease; owning reserves; control of oil all off the table. https://t.co/6Gqo0ADVxk
Who said Trump Administration doesn't have a strategy. 😶It sounds pretty reasonable. The question based on its strategic diplomatic malpractice in past, is there focus, leverage and partners to make it work. One thing is clear -it won't work with a right-wing Netanyahu in power.
They can investigate all they want. Six months on -unless I missed it - there's still no US accounting or accountability for US strikes on the school in Minab. It makes sense too for journalists to keep this context front and center.
Iran is playing for time - rebuilding ballistic/drone capacity; nuclear infrastructure; avoiding negotiations on nuclear issue and squeezing maximum leverage on Straits all on assumption US won’t return to full-scale war.
A must read column @mkoplow @IsraelPolicy4m Israel’s falling stock in US is a result of Israeli policies. Old slogans; victimhood; what aboutism; social media influencers won’t help. Only changes in US policy will. https://t.co/BMuoJFpUR5
6 months in, this US war of choice has turned into an Iranian war of necessity as it rebuilds its ballistic and cruise missiles; and perhaps its nuclear infrastructure.
Trump now believes he’s found a winning strategy- blockade; sanctions; weakening Iran’s hold over Straits. But none of it offers a pathway out; a focus on Iran’s nukes; and risks escalation. Wash, rinse, repeat. The war goes on…..and on.
Fascinating how things change and still remain same. Trump believes he now has advantage and the combo of blockade; sanctions; strikes is a winning strategy and will create an advantageous status quo. We’ll see if Iran agrees.
.@maxboot Trenchant column. Having worked for half dozen SecStates, loyalty is important. But Hegseth demonstrates something else - fealty, unquestioning obeisance much as a knight might obey a king. That's bad; and that's not America. https://t.co/zDI43jNZ24
With no end state in sight and each side convinced still time is on their side, the stage is set for more of same or worse - an escalation. What marks this even worse is neither side has a clearly defined set of achievable objectives.
What we’re watching now is a closed strait evolve into a more congested one. There’s no way out right now since both sides believe time’s on n their side and both, especially Iran believe they have an option to escalate. No reason we can’t be here a month’s time.
That Gulf states in wake of this war could not manage to create a functional alliance and the only alignment emerging was a Turkey added Saudi-Pakistan defense pact speaks volumes about Gulf rivalries, dysfunction, fears.https://t.co/HEFeEr0ALZ
The Iranians are reading this too. Betting if they can weather economic blockade/sanctions too they can outwait/outlast the Administration. Still no stable end state on the horizon. https://t.co/OLI2n8GTGr
If part of Trump Administration's calculations for crushing Iran's economy is to encourage popular unrest and demonstrations against regime, it's a pretty cynical play, given thousands killed by a murderous regime in January. Despite Trump's promise, help was not on way.
6 months into the war, Groucho's line is apt - who are you going to believe me or your lying eyes? None of Administration's goals - regime change; recovering HEU; denying Iran capacity to produce a nuke; ending ballistic threat have been achieved - gaslighting notwithstanding
Seems like a campaign of willful gaslighting- part of an effort to claim and rationalize success 6 months in and demonstrate the Administration is in no hurry as midterms approach
At a time when it’s hard to imagine majority of Americans celebrating or grieving together as one, reaction to Dolly Parton’s passing may well be unique. She represented very best in all of us and kind of country we aspire to. May her memory be a blessing. https://t.co/mKpxRMasg5
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