Nicole Grajewski
@NicoleGrajewski · Middle East
Nicole Grajewski is followed by Storyz World for research and subject expertise coverage across the Middle East chapter.
Several Iranian officials, most notably the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, have threatened NPT withdrawal in response to the IAEA Board of Governors’ resolution on noncompliance.
“The U.S. launched new attacks on Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday in response to a fresh attempt by Tehran to strike U.S. warships in the Middle East” https://t.co/S6NWhqS67j
Mearsheimer in Moscow to discuss changing world order
“The Pentagon is investigating the high likelihood that an explosion in southern Iran that destroyed a home hosting a wedding celebration was caused by a U.S. bomb that missed a nearby target” https://t.co/ApeHqrKBoI
Genuine question here, who in the nuclear community genuinely believes that the nuclear issue can be solved by further military action. It’s an easy cop out to say regime change but it would be nice to hear a thought out view on this. https://t.co/W3lVZEuHfb
“U.S. negotiators used the promise of access to Nvidia’s artificial-intelligence chips to help secure a preliminary peace deal reached last year between the nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan” https://t.co/g9nfZZSvNC
“U.S. government investigators have taken the extraordinary step of subjecting roughly 50 members of the U.S. military’s Joint Staff to polygraph tests over leaks to journalists, including about how the Iran war has created a shortage of crucial munitions” https://t.co/GOwOtDSGw3
“In a joint appearance at a regional security meeting, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin for his support in wartime and urged that their nations work together to oppose U.S. sanctions.” https://t.co/FzyXvYwfAg
“U.S. forces struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets including air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites.”
Iran appears to be targeting Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait, expanding the scope of its strikes following earlier strikes against Jordan.
Major @FT investigation by @maxseddon, @MilesMJohnson, and @charles_clover: Moscow has been helping Iran acquire the engineering know-how to design and improve its own ramjet-powered supersonic cruise missiles. https://t.co/a3PyAawh5e
“The strikes hit several sites across Iran’s southern shores, including a military base in Bandar Abbas, the perimeter of the commercial airport on Qeshm Island, and targets in Sirik and Jask.” https://t.co/7mOi9UoIJn
The problem with this piece (and many “arms race” warnings) is that it casts the U.S. as the catalyst while downplaying Chinese and Russian agency. Many of the other points in the piece are also fairly rudimentary, reading more like familiar platitudes than analysis.
“Escalate to de-escalate” and the October 2022 crisis have distorted perceptions of Russian nuclear use. Moscow does envision non-strategic nuclear weapons for warfighting, but largely in extreme scenarios involving the collapse of its conventional forces.
From Chapter 6 of my book: the first iteration of maximum pressure inadvertently pushed Iran closer to Russia (and China). Subsequent events only deepened that trajectory. It’s still important to consider the second- and third-order effects of what “economic D-Day” morphs into. https://t.co/rsNO0JMlkN
Dolly Parton, Superstar Whose Songs Spoke to Millions, Dies at 80 https://t.co/8uT8CbJfDg
Interesting that the U.S. is seeking information on these very well-known figures, likely trying to get information from Iranians on their whereabouts within the country.
The central uncertainties are political as well as technical: whether weaponization has been authorized, what survived the war, whether Iran can reconstitute a covert production chain and what risks Tehran is willing to accept.
Connected stories
- U.S. Says It Struck Three Iranian Tankers After Missile Attacks on Warships
- U.S. Begins New Round of Strikes on IRGC Targets in Iran
- Jordan Says Air Defenses Destroyed Eight Missiles That Breached Its Airspace
- UAE Air Force Responds to Drone Approaching From Iran
- Iran’s Guards Say Missile-and-Drone Response to New U.S. Strikes Has Begun
- U.S. Sanctions Nearly 60 Iran-Linked Targets in Operation Economic Outcast