Alexandre del Valle
@alexdelvalle3 · Europe
Alexandre del Valle is followed by Storyz World for journalism and current affairs coverage connected to France in the Europe chapter.
The capture of #Mokha by the #Houthis changes the geometry of the war against #Iran. After #Ormuz, #Téhéran indirectly gains leverage over #BabelMandeb, which has become vital for bypassing Hormuz because 8.1 million barrels per day passed through it in the second quarter of 2026. If the cities of #Dhubab and #Perim fall, Iran could exert influence over two global energy chokepoints at once. A formidable weapon for negotiating with #Washington… but also the best way to push #Riyad to enter the war much more directly.
Translated from French#Russie / #Ukraine: It is always good to recall a few figures to measure this so-called European “energy independence” vis-à-vis #Russie. In 2026, Russian gas still accounts for around 12% of the #EU’s demand. From January to May 2016, Russian LNG imports were up 11% year on year. In the first half of 2026, the EU bought a RECORD 9.97 million tonnes from #YamalLNG, via 136 LNG carriers: +16%, for nearly 6 billion euros. Russian LNG volumes even jumped 17% year on year between March 18 and May 31. We sanction #Moscou, proclaim independence, whip up public opinion with warmongering speeches… but we continue to buy its gas!
Translated from FrenchWhatever one may think morally of #Assad, #Syria had a state and a stable regime. Today, Ahmed #alCharaa, a former Al-Qaeda cadre and head of Al-Nusra, is received and legitimized by Western chancelleries. Yesterday a “jihadist,” today a “respectable partner.” The West does not always fight terrorism but sometimes chooses which former terrorists become its interlocutors. That is the height of hypocrisy. My conference at the regional Parliament of #Rome _____ Whatever the moral judgment of #Assad, nationalist #Syria fought jihadism. Today, Ahmed #alCharaa, an outgrowth of ISIS and Al-Qaeda, former head of Al-Nusra, is legitimized by Western chancelleries as a “respectable interlocutor.” The West wages wars or interference and sanctions in the name of democratic morality but supports dictators and terrorists according to the geopolitics of energy or to hinder Russia. My conference at the regional Parliament of #Rome
Translated from FrenchWestern wars often begin with an avalanche of moral narratives and threats presented as certainties. In #Irak, #SaddamHussein’s famous weapons of mass destruction were not what we had been sold. Years later, the “mistakes” are admitted. In the meantime… hundreds of thousands dead, countries ruined, and even Western interests rarely strengthened! Behind the “morality,” there is above all geopolitics and energy. Video of my conference at the regional Parliament of #Rome Western wars often begin with an avalanche of moral narratives and threats presented as certainties. In #Iraq, #SaddamHussein’s famous weapons of mass destruction were not what we had been told. Years later, the “mistakes” are admitted. In the meantime… hundreds of thousands dead, countries devastated, and even Western interests rarely strengthened! Behind the “morality,” there are above all geopolitics and energy. Video of my conference at the regional Parliament of Rome #Geopolitica #Ucraina #Iran #Iraq #Siria #NATO
Translated from French#Russie #Ukraine: The #Witkoff–#Kushner mission is much more serious than a simple diplomatic relaunch. And it is clear that the #CIA laid the groundwork ten days earlier, when @DCIARatcliffe met in #Moscou with the heads of the #SVR and #FSB, even discussing a #Trump–#Poutine–#Zelensky summit and pressing the Russians to reopen negotiations. But behind the diplomatic opening, the balance of power continues… Ukrainian intelligence services estimate that #Poutine is preparing several escalation scenarios, particularly in the north toward #Kiev and #Tchernihiv. Russia’s 72-hour pause in strikes against #Kyiv is less a truce than a window for negotiations. One can assume that #Trump is trying to find out whether #Poutine wants to cash in his gains now or continue the war to improve his position further before negotiating, which for now tends more toward the second option…
Translated from French#Chine and #Russie are today situational allies against American hegemony. #Pékin has its priorities: #Taïwan, the Indo-Pacific and the erosion of #US power that encircles it. But #Chine has not forgotten that tsarist #Russie had taken advantage of its weakening during the “unequal treaties” of the 19th century to seize Chinese territories in the Far East. However, if a Sino-Russian rupture is possible one day, it will not happen for several decades, because since the agreement that established the 1997 borders and then the creation of the #ocs, which met recently in #Bichkek, the priority adversary remains #Washington and the common objective is the multipolar redefinition of the world’s geostrategic hierarchy in the face of the American-Western hegemony that encircles them. Discover my latest video analysis on China/Russia relations: sincere friendship or opportunistic alliance?
Translated from FrenchA few days after the #OCS summit that confirmed the #Pékin - #Moscou alliance in #Bishkek, the post-Western bloc staged its unity in the face of a divided West, its circumvented sanctions, and the wars in which it is entangled (#Iran) or powerless to stop the Russian attack (#Ukraine). My latest video analysis on relations between #Chine and #Russie: true friends or allies of convenience?
Translated from French#Iran: The resumption of the strikes does not necessarily mean a return to total war… We are in a form of intermittent coercive warfare with targeted American strikes, calibrated Iranian retaliations, then a return to the strategy of economic strangulation. #Washington also intends to hit hardest on the sanctions front, with #ScottBessent announcing yesterday weekly secondary sanctions, notably targeting banks and access to the dollar… without, of course, attacking Chinese financial institutions, which enable #Teheran to withstand the pressure over the long term.
Translated from French#Russie has not left the Syrian game! Despite the upheaval in the balance of power, #Moscou retains two essential levers: its naval base in #Tartous, which gives it access to the Mediterranean, and the #Hmeimim air base, the hub of its regional military presence. My interview in @Valeurs with #RandaKassis, who deciphers the Russian strategy: preserve its positions, let the new Syrian balance stabilize, and retain enough cards to continue to influence the country's future.
Translated from FrenchThe oil agreement between the #US and #Venezuela is an American geopolitical move in its own hemisphere, skillfully orchestrated by #MarcoRubio, dubbed the “Viceroy.” By securing access to a massive share of Venezuela’s reserves, #Trump is seeking to reduce dependence on the unstable zones of the Gulf while pushing back Chinese, Russian and Iranian influence in Latin America. But beware of announcement effects, because billions of barrels underground do not mean immediate production...! We know that Venezuela’s infrastructure is degraded and will require years of investment. Even if this represents a real strategic success for Washington, its energy and economic translation will take time and cannot halt the effects of the catastrophe in #Ormuz.
Translated from FrenchIn the 80s and 90s, the French underworld was already violent and greedy. But among some criminals, it still retained a kind of “code”: keeping one’s word, loyalty to the clan, refusing to target families or cause collateral damage, and a taste for silence rather than exhibitionism…Today, we have moved into another dimension with uninhibited ultra-violence, settling scores over a few thousand euros, kids recruited as killers, collateral victims and staging on social networks… The full interview with #JeanClaudeConstant, former owner of a nightclub on the French Riviera who mixed with the Marseille underworld from 1980 to 1999 and has now become a highly sought-after mental coach
Translated from FrenchThe #US sanctions against #Iran have just been imposed, and #Trump is brandishing the dollar weapon! By threatening to exclude states, banks and companies that facilitate Iranian transactions from the dollar system, #ScottBessent is seeking to turn Iran’s isolation into a binary choice for its partners… In plain terms, #Téhéran’s camp or access to the Western financial system. This strategy could hurt and cause a shortage of foreign currency, a further fall in the rial, inflation and difficulty importing… But its effectiveness in the short and medium term is doubtful because: 1 ) the American capacity to strike major Chinese, Indian or Asian actors that maintain trade with Iran is virtually nil; 2 ) #Trump will thus stupidly accelerate the ongoing demand for de-dollarization in a world moving toward a post-Western order; 3) If he backs down in front of them, he will not be able to force them all (except weak countries), and the #Pasdaran regime will retain room for maneuver and limit the damage, especially since sanctions can really work only when the targeted country is weak and unsupported by powerful countries, whereas #Pékin will not abandon the #Téhéran regime... If he goes all the way, these secondary sanctions will not be much more effective, but risk an unnecessary and excessively costly clash with #Pékin, not to mention the heightened new tensions over Gulf oil exported via #Ormuz and the #merrouge to Asia, which Ukrainian drones and missiles could reduce to nothing.
Translated from FrenchWestern political interference through the “Arab revolutions” and the “color revolutions” (#Serbie-#Ukraine-Géorgie) during the years 1999-2014, as well as NATO’s eastward expansion and American missiles, destabilized entire regions and led to wars: the so-called “values diplomacy” of the “liberal” West is not only hypocritical (helping Al-Qaeda in Libya and in #Syrie against #Kadhafi and #Assad, while supporting pro-#Hamas and pro-#Talibans Qatar), but also dangerous: the Sahel, Ukraine, civil wars in Syria and Yemen, the rise of radical Islamism. I spoke on these themes at the “#Geocrazia – Geopolitical mutations and new international scenarios” colloquium, at the Chamber of Deputies in #Rome
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