South America

Flávio Bolsonaro Has 46% to Lula’s 44% in Brazil Runoff Poll, Within Margin of Error

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Courtroom-sketch editorial illustration of Flávio Bolsonaro in a dark suit, white shirt and red tie against a pale wall, based on an archival November 2018 U.S. Consulate portrait, rendered in warm ochre and slate-blue pastel strokes; contextual portrait, not a depiction of the October 2026 poll.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro had 46% of total voting intentions and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44% in a Quaest poll released October 14 ahead of Brazil’s October 25 presidential runoff. The difference was within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction. Blank or null votes, or neither candidate, accounted for 9%, while 1% were undecided. Commissioned by TV Globo and O Globo, the survey interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 or older nationwide on October 10–13 and had a 95% confidence level. It was Quaest’s first poll since the October 4 first round.

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