Study Estimates Pre-1788 Indigenous Australian Population at 2.22 Million

Researchers estimate Australia’s Indigenous population immediately before 1788 had a median size of 2.22 million, or 0.29 people per square kilometre. The study estimates about 28,200 excess deaths annually and 2.06 million in total from 1788 to 1861. Its authors combined ethnographic observations, archaeological and genetic reconstructions, and modelled carrying capacity; convergent modelled and genetics-based results underpinned the median rather than historical or ethnographic counts. The peer-reviewed research quantifies the scale of population collapse after European colonisation while acknowledging uncertainty across reconstruction methods.