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Brazil Poll Shows Lula’s Runoff Lead Over Flávio Bolsonaro Narrowing to 4.5 Points

公開 2026年8月31日 13:54 · 3 週間前

Courtroom-sketch editorial illustration of hands placing a plain envelope in a ballot box, adapted from a May 2017 photograph; symbolic voting context, not the reported election, voters or voting method. — AI courtroom sketch of hands placing a plain envelope in a ballot box, adapted from a May 2017 photograph; symbolic voting context, not the reported election, voters or voting method. Adapted from the credited reference. Arnaud Jaegers 2017-05-07 (Unsplash).jpg — Arnaud Jaegers; CC0.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 47.1% to 42.6% in a hypothetical presidential runoff, according to an AtlasIntel survey. The 4.5-point advantage narrowed from 6.3 points in the previous poll, when Lula had 49.2% and Bolsonaro 42.9%. In the first-round scenario, Lula registered 43.4%, Bolsonaro 33.7%, Augusto Cury 7.8% and Renan Santos 7.6%. AtlasIntel surveyed 5,014 people through random digital recruitment from August 25 to 30; the poll has a one-point margin of error, 95% confidence, and TSE registration BR-07972/2026.

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