Brazil Poll Shows Lula’s Runoff Lead Over Flávio Bolsonaro Narrowing to 4.5 Points

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 47.1% to 42.6% in a hypothetical presidential runoff, according to an AtlasIntel survey. The 4.5-point advantage narrowed from 6.3 points in the previous poll, when Lula had 49.2% and Bolsonaro 42.9%. In the first-round scenario, Lula registered 43.4%, Bolsonaro 33.7%, Augusto Cury 7.8% and Renan Santos 7.6%. AtlasIntel surveyed 5,014 people through random digital recruitment from August 25 to 30; the poll has a one-point margin of error, 95% confidence, and TSE registration BR-07972/2026.